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Prediction for CME (2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-30T20:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40987/-1
CME Note: Wide CME observed first by STEREO A COR2 at 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Updated observations in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 from preliminary analysis where they were not included due to field-of-view with GOES CCOR-1 and a downlink gap resuming at 2025-08-30T21:20Z for SOHO LASCO. The source for this CME is a long duration M2.7 class flare from AR 14199 (N03E13) which began at 2025-08-30T19:11Z and peaked at 2025-08-30T20:02Z, viewed well in SDO AIA 131. Wide field line opening, dimming, and an EUV wave are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211 and GOES SUVI 284. Brightening as a double ribbon flare and post-eruptive arcade observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211/304 and GOES SUVI 304. Additionally observed from STEREO A EUVI 195 as field line opening and dimming, and STEREO A EUVI 304 as brightening, around N03E60 as viewed from STEREO A. Arrival: Significant shock arrival with magnetic field rapidly increasing from 5 nT to 26 nT over several minutes near 2025-09-01T20:26Z in association with the arrival of CMEs: 2025-08-30T00:23Z and halo CME 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Wind speeds rapidly increase from 390 km/s to 675 km/s, and temperature rapidly increases from 80,000 Kelvin to over 1 million Kelvin following the arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T20:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T14:38Z (-1.02h, +1.02h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 76.0%
Prediction Method: ELEvoHI
Prediction Method Note: 
Data used: STEREO-A/HI beacon data (max. elongation is 33.3°)
Direction: 52° from STEREO-A (+/- 10°)
Half width: 42° (+/- 10°)

------ELEvoHI ensemble modelling------
Targets:
       ========
        Parker Solar Probe
       --------
        Arrival Probability:  76 %
        Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]:  2025-08-31 15:28 +/- 0.77  hours
        Mean Arrival Time [UT]:  2025-08-31 15:29 +/- 0.77  hours
        Median Arrival Time [UT]:  2025-08-31 15:18 +/- 0.77  hours
        Mean Arrival Speed:  864 +/- 22 km/s
       --------
       ========
        L1
       --------
        Arrival Probability:  76 %
        Deterministic Arrival Time [UT]:  2025-09-01 14:38 +/- 1.02  hours
        Mean Arrival Time [UT]:  2025-09-01 15:32 +/- 1.02  hours
        Median Arrival Time [UT]:  2025-09-01 15:28 +/- 1.02  hours
        Mean Arrival Speed:  813 +/- 57 km/s
       --------
Lead Time: 11.10 hour(s)
Difference: 5.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) on 2025-09-01T09:20Z
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